Supply Constraint from Earthquakes in Japan in Input–Output Analysis

Disasters often cause exogenous flow damage (i.e., the [hypothetical] difference in economic scale with and without a disaster in a certain period) to production (“supply constraint”). However, input-output (IO) analysis (IOA) cannot usually consider it, because the Leontief quantity model (LQM) assumes that production is endogenous; the Ghosh quantity model (GQM) is considered implausible; and the Leontief price model (LPM) and the Ghosh price model (GPM) assume that quantity is fixed. This study proposes to consider a supply constraint in the LPM, introducing the price elasticity of demand. This study uses the loss of social surplus (SS) as a damage estimation because production (sales) is less informative as a damage index than profit (margin); that is, production can be any amount if without considering profit, and it does not tell exactly how much profit is lost for each supplier (upstream sector) and buyer (downstream sector). As a model application, this study examines Japan's largest five earthquakes from 1995 to 2017 and the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) in March 2011. The worst earthquake at the peak tends to increase price by 10–20% and decrease SS by 20–30%, when compared with the initial month's prices/production. The worst damage tends to last eight months at most, accumulating 0.5-month-production damage (i.e., the sum of [hypothetical] differences in SS with and without an earthquake [for eight months] is 50% of the initial month production). Meanwhile, the GEJE in the five prefectures had cumulatively, a 25-month-production damage until the temporal recovery at the 37th month.     

The roles of supply network centralities in firm performance and the moderating effects of reputation and export-orientation

Abstract

This study explores how supply network degree, closeness, and betweenness centralities affect firm performance, and the moderating effects of organizational reputation (measured by PageRank centrality) and export-orientation. The supply chain relationship empirical data are drawn from manufacturing and manufacturing service companies in Hong Kong, China. Social network analysis and moderated regression analysis were adopted to test the hypotheses for a sample of 814 focal firms with 3086 supply chain ties. The results indicate that in-degree and closeness centralities improve firm performance. Reputation is found to positively moderate the relationship between closeness and sales performance, but negatively moderates the relationship between betweenness and sales performance. Export-orientation has no effect on relationships. This study contributes to the literature by providing additional empirical evidence on the role of supply network position in firm performance. It also introduces PageRank centrality as a new measure of organizational reputation in a supply network.     

Retrospective Paternal and Maternal Parenting Styles,Regulatory Self-Efficacy and Adolescent Risk Taking

This study aims to calculate a scaled risk-taking behavior index and to test a model in which maternal and paternal parenting styles affect risk-taking behavior with a mediation of adolescents’ regulatory self-efficacy. Participants were 816 adolescents (44% males) responding to a self-report questionnaire about their risk-taking behavior, regulatory self-efficacy, and retrospective memories of paternal and maternal parenting styles. Results suggested an item rating in the index showing that behaviors considered less risky referred to alcohol use and the unplanned first sexual intercourse, whereas behaviors considered more risky referred to the lack of use of contraceptives and the age of the first sexual intercourse. Results revealed a significant indirect effect of authoritative and authoritarian styles on risk-taking behavior. These styles shaped the adolescents’ regulatory self-efficacy, which in turn predicted adolescent risk-taking behavior. Results underline the complex interplay of relationships between parents and their children.     

A Discourse on the Incorporation of Organizational Factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Key Questions and Categorical Review

This article presents a discourse on the incorporation of organizational factors into probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)/probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), a topic of debate since the 1980s that has spurred discussions among industry, regulatory agencies, and the research community. The main contributions of this article include (1) identifying the four key open questions associated with this topic; (2) framing ongoing debates by considering differing perspectives around each question; (3) offering a categorical review of existing studies on this topic to justify the selection of each question and to analyze the challenges related to each perspective; and (4) highlighting the directions of research required to reach a final resolution for each question. The four key questions are: (I) How significant is the contribution of organizational factors to accidents and incidents? (II) How critical, with respect to improving risk assessment, is the explicit incorporation of organizational factors into PRA? (III) What theoretical bases are needed for explicit incorporation of organizational factors into PRA? (IV) What methodological bases are needed for the explicit incorporation of organizational factors into PRA? Questions I and II mainly analyze PRA literature from the nuclear domain. For Questions III and IV, a broader review and categorization is conducted of those existing cross-disciplinary studies that have evaluated the effects of organizational factors on safety (not solely PRA-based) to shed more light on future research needs.     

Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Post-Earthquake Ignition Probabilities Considering Inter-Earthquake Heterogeneity

Post-earthquake fires are high-consequence events with extensive damage potential. They are also low-frequency events, so their nature remains underinvestigated. One difficulty in modeling post-earthquake ignition probabilities is reducing the model uncertainty attributed to the scarce source data. The data scarcity problem has been resolved by pooling the data indiscriminately collected from multiple earthquakes. However, this approach neglects the inter-earthquake heterogeneity in the regional and seasonal characteristics, which is indispensable for risk assessment of future post-earthquake fires. Thus, the present study analyzes the post-earthquake ignition probabilities of five major earthquakes in Japan from 1995 to 2016 (1995 Kobe, 2003 Tokachi-oki, 2004 Niigata–Chuetsu, 2011 Tohoku, and 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes) by a hierarchical Bayesian approach. As the ignition causes of earthquakes share a certain commonality, common prior distributions were assigned to the parameters, and samples were drawn from the target posterior distribution of the parameters by a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The results of the hierarchical model were comparatively analyzed with those of pooled and independent models. Although the pooled and hierarchical models were both robust in comparison with the independent model, the pooled model underestimated the ignition probabilities of earthquakes with few data samples. Among the tested models, the hierarchical model was least affected by the source-to-source variability in the data. The heterogeneity of post-earthquake ignitions with different regional and seasonal characteristics has long been desired in the modeling of post-earthquake ignition probabilities but has not been properly considered in the existing approaches. The presented hierarchical Bayesian approach provides a systematic and rational framework to effectively cope with this problem, which consequently enhances the statistical reliability and stability of estimating post-earthquake ignition probabilities.     

Analyzing multiple vector autoregressions through matrix-variate normal distribution with two covariance matrices

Abstract

This article proposes a new approach to analyze multiple vector autoregressive (VAR) models that render us a newly constructed matrix autoregressive (MtAR) model based on a matrix-variate normal distribution with two covariance matrices. The MtAR is a generalization of VAR models where the two covariance matrices allow the extension of MtAR to a structural MtAR analysis. The proposed MtAR can also incorporate different lag orders across VAR systems that provide more flexibility to the model. The estimation results from a simulation study and an empirical study on macroeconomic application show favorable performance of our proposed models and method.     

PCA likelihood ratio test approach for attributed social networks monitoring

Abstract

One of the most important factors in building and changing communication mechanisms in social networks is considering features of the members of social networks. Most of the existing methods in network monitoring don’t consider effects of features in network formation mechanisms and others don’t lead to reliable results when the features abound or when there are correlations among them. In this article, we combined two methods principal component analysis (PCA) and likelihood method to monitor the underlying network model when the features of individuals abound and when some of them have high correlations with each other.     

《陈州粜米》中的包公形象新探

现存的元代公案剧中，以包公的形象最为丰满。在多数剧本中，包公通常以高大全的形象出现；剧情多是借助鬼神、梦境的暗示判案。然而，《陈州粜米》的作者却独树一帜，塑造了一个具有多面性格的包公：他有着普通人的情感，面对官场黑暗会萌生退隐之意，但面对受到伤害的百姓又会挺身而出伸张正义；他幽默诙谐，与下属谈笑风生，又聪明机智，能在恶势力毫无意识的情况下轻松取证。包公形象的创新是作者独创性的体现，也是观众审美需求的产物。同时，剧本的设计也反映了当时的社会制度。这些创新使剧本更加贴近生活，剧情更加真实可信，具有极高的审美价值。     

Longitudinal Mediators of Relations Between Family Violence and Adolescent Dating Aggression Perpetration

Few longitudinal studies have examined the pathways through which family violence leads to dating aggression. In the current study the authors used 3 waves of data obtained from 8th‐ and 9th‐grade adolescents (N = 1,965) to examine the hypotheses that the prospective relationship between witnessing family violence and directly experiencing violence and physical dating aggression perpetration is mediated by 3 constructs: (a) normative beliefs about dating aggression (norms), (b) anger dysregulation, and (c) depression. Results from cross‐lagged regression models suggest that the relationship between having been hit by an adult and dating aggression is mediated by changes in norms and anger dysregulation, but not depression. No evidence of indirect effects from witnessing family violence to dating aggression was found through any of the proposed mediators. Taken together, the findings suggest that anger dysregulation and normative beliefs are potential targets for dating abuse prevention efforts aimed at youth who have directly experienced violence.     

Feminists wrestle with testosterone: Hormones,socialization and cultural interactionism as predictors of women’s gendered selves

Sociology of gender has developed beyond a personality-centered idea of “sex-roles” to an approach that stresses interaction and social structure. At the same time, there has been a concurrent development in the psychological sex-differences and medical literatures toward including the biological bases of sex-typed behavior and gender identities. In this paper, while we conceptualize gender as a social structure, we focus only on the individual level of analysis: testing the relative strength of (maternal circulating) prenatal hormones, childhood socialization, and the power of expectations attached to adult social roles (cultural interactionist) as explanations for women’s self-reported feminine and masculine selves. Our findings are complex, and support some importance of each theory. Prenatal hormones, childhood socialization, and cultural interactionism were all influential factors for gendered selves. While cultural expectations predicted only feminine selves, prenatal hormones were more robust predictors of masculine sense of self. While personality may be a relatively stable characteristic influenced by the body and childhood socialization, our results reinforce the importance of studying how the social world responds to and reinforces gendered personality.